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Monday, February 20, 2006

Why I know Google will do an office suite and a desktop OS in 2006....


Let's look at the facts:



1. 99.9% of Google revenue comes from Adsense. 2. Google search is not necessarily the most efficient carrier of Google Adsense (content based websites and applications are very good at carrying Adsense as well)
3. Google is doing projects like Google Pack, GTalk, Orkut, and GMail that have NOTHING to do with indexing the worlds data--these projects are all carriers for Adsense.
4. Google has built the largest grid computing networking in the world with hundreds of thousands of computers--extending this to a desktop OS would be a cake walk.
5. Google has hired folks who worked on Open Office.
6. GMail's WYSIWYG is 90% of Microsoft Word. Everyone and their brother is making web-based word processors and spreadsheets today.
7. Google is about to launch a calendar according to reports. That's a no brainer since they have contacts and email already.
8. Most folks are fine with web-based applications now. AJAX has made web-based email competitive with desktop email--case is closed on that issue.
9. Google's server network is the only one in existence that could handle a hosted office suite--GMAIL has proven that.
10. Google is getting involved in the light $100 laptop project--which is really close to the Google Desktop concept.
11. Bill Gates himself said that there will be a huge market for advertising-based software, and Microsoft is making a web-based version of Office a major priority.
12. Tech CEOs lie through their teeth all the time--they have to. Steve Jobs said that he would never make a video iPod for two years--then he did. I would task Eric's comments that they are not interested in making a desktop OS, Office Suite, etc. with a grain of salt. If they were interested--and i know they are--they would never tip their cards.

Now, I don't think Google will make a PC. I think Google will.... :)

10 comments:

ajay said...

Well, I respect your analysis.You are making an assumption that Yahoo and Microsoft will stand still. I feel Yahoo understands this marketplace much better than both Google and Microsoft. Yahoo has noth the content and a fierce strategy to provide a seamless user experience between PC, Mobile device and TV. The future computing platform will not be PC as we know it today. It will be some other device (or maybe devices).

As far as your comment that Hardware manufacturers will love free OS. Yes, they will but, how many of them have leveraged the free Linux in consumer space? None. Consider a scenario - Google spends all its time and energy to capture OS market and then next month Microsoft decides to offer a stripped down Windows for free! That will be an instant death of Google OS Strategy.

Google, to me, now is smelling (and lately behaving) more and more like and average Tech company. If Google Pack and Google Video are two big announcements for Google then I am getting convinced people need to cash their Google shares. Google Pack is a joke and Google Video is like cable provider in internet era. I expect a lot of "value creation" from Google - I did not see any at CES.

pramod said...

thanks Ajay
what a counter attack...
is that Yahoo effect... :)

he he he....

Prem said...

It would be great, if, google pulls it out a sleek network-OS. But trying to argue saying applications are the means of getting to that end is quite farfetched, currently [atleast at this point of time]. It sounds like getting the utilites (plumbing and electrification) even before the house is built!!
Yes, Office Suite, the butter/cheese of microsoft could be the next targeted AJAX application. But, remember, it still would open the pandora's box of data privacy as most of the services provided by the google, all busily index the key words of ur talk, mail, search, blog, etc and try to provide adsense links to it.
So, year 2006 might place google, as an umberalla for all the "right" net-applications.

pramod said...

Prem....Yup
But I think Google will innovate faster than we can pretend to analyze....

viky said...

I agree with you,like to add some more....
Google may want to organize the world's information, but they also want to monetize it. That's not a bad thing, necessarily, but that's their objective. Google seems to be looking for two things right now:
1) Data that they may not be able to monetize right now but which they find interesting and
2) Content they can monetize. A desktop or similar app would provide quite a bit of both.

what do u say...

pramod said...

$viky
Thanks,
could be...

Anonymous said...

Great Notes
First time I met you in my hostel room when you first came to hostel. From that time onward, I have always seen you in creative works. Either it is in keeping the room clean, OR in arranging the tables to keep your Computer OR how to make a new college copy by cutting the edges of waste computer paper. This blog now upholds this creative nature of yours and exposes it to the world.
Keep Going. Star is not the limit. Its just a place to take rest in the journey of life...

pramod said...

Hey Sandipan...(anonymous)
U still remember those things...
thanks yar...

Listen...
u can use the option "other" while commenting so that u can put your name there...or bast way to creat a login it taks just a minute.,

Keep commenting...
thanks again

Prem said...

Some nice analysis

http://www.pbs.org/cringely
/pulpit/pulpit20060223.html

...read the whole stuff.
gross summary drawn could be
*Convergence of networks.
*P2P would be the biggest threat the client-server arch.
So, basing on that analysis and trying the see from the google's current heading direction. Google would have to re-orient its direction!

pramod said...

Exactly Prem...
I read that analysis...
the conclusion they have made
is really true for the future.

Thanks